The betting market thinks the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year race is over.
Olivia Miles has moved all the way to -2000 at most sportsbooks, making her one of the biggest favorites for any major WNBA award. Based on what we’ve seen through the first month of the season, it’s hard to argue against her.
But while Miles continues to strengthen her grip on the top spot, the battle behind her remains fascinating.
Pauline Astier is producing elite efficiency for a winning New York Liberty team. Azzi Fudd continues to make the most of her opportunities in Dallas. Jovana Nogic remains one of the best scorers in this rookie class despite Phoenix’s struggles.
Find out who is making moves in the latest 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year race.
2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year Odds from bet365!
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Olivia Miles | -2000 |
| Azzi Fudd | +1200 |
| Awa Fam | +4000 |
| Flau’jae Johnson | +4000 |
| Gabriela Jaquez | +6000 |
| Pauline Astier | +6000 |
| Jovana Nogic | +15000 |
| Sydney Taylor | +15000 |
| Cotie McMahon | +20000 |
| Lauren Betts | +25000 |
| Raven Johnson | +25000 |
1. Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx (-2000)
Last Ranking: #1
Olivia Miles has done everything voters could ask for.
The Minnesota Lynx rookie is averaging strong numbers across the board while helping lead the league’s best team. More importantly, she impacts winning in nearly every phase of the game.
Among qualified rookies, Miles owns the best Player Impact Estimate (18.2), a remarkable 20.8 Net Rating, and a 29.9 assist percentage that highlights her ability to control games as a primary playmaker.
Minnesota is 10-2 when she plays.
That combination of production and team success is usually the formula for winning Rookie of the Year, and right now nobody else has matched it.
2. Pauline Astier, New York Liberty (+6000)
Last Ranking: #4
Pauline Astier may be the most underrated rookie in the league.
The Liberty guard isn’t putting up the flashy scoring totals that grab headlines, but her overall impact has been outstanding.
Astier owns a 65.6 true shooting percentage, a 26.6 assist percentage, and a 2.23 assist-to-turnover ratio while helping New York win games.
The Liberty are 9-4, and Astier continues to look comfortable in meaningful minutes for one of the league’s contenders.
The betting market may not believe she has a realistic chance to catch Miles, but her overall body of work deserves far more attention than it has received.
Time will tell how the imminent return of Sabrina Ionescu will affect her odds, but right now, she’s probably the second-best rookie in the W.
3. Azzi Fudd, Dallas Wings (+1200)
Last Ranking: Honorable Mention
Azzi Fudd cracks our Top Five for the first time since our preseason rankings.
Dallas has emerged as one of the league’s strongest teams, and Fudd has quietly become an important part of that success. Her 115.2 offensive rating, 60.9 true shooting percentage, and positive 14.7 net rating show just how effective she has been.
The biggest obstacle remains opportunity.
Fudd’s usage rate is lower than many of the other top rookies, but if her role expands over the next several weeks, she may become the only player with a realistic path to challenging Miles.
4. Jovana Nogic, Phoenix Mercury (+15000)
Last Ranking: #2
Jovana Nogic’s odds have drifted dramatically, but the production remains impressive.
The Phoenix rookie continues to score efficiently, posting a 53.7 effective field goal percentage and a 60.1 true shooting percentage while carrying a significant offensive workload.
The problem is Phoenix’s record.
Fair or not, Rookie of the Year voters often reward players on winning teams. The Mercury’s struggles have made it difficult for Nogic to gain momentum despite her strong individual numbers.
If Phoenix starts climbing the standings, Nogic could quickly become relevant again.
5. Flau’jae Johnson, Seattle Storm (+4000)
Last Ranking: Honorable Mention
Few rookies have received a bigger offensive responsibility than Flau’jae Johnson.
The Seattle rookie continues to play heavy minutes and carries a usage rate of 24.7, one of the highest marks among first-year players. The opportunity is clearly there.
The efficiency, however, remains a concern.
Johnson owns a 38.1 effective field goal percentage and a 45.7 true shooting percentage, numbers that will need to improve if she hopes to make a serious push for the award.
Still, volume matters, and Johnson remains one of the most visible rookies in the league.
Just Missing the Top Five
Gabriela Jaquez, Chicago Sky (+6000)
Jaquez continues to provide solid two-way play for Chicago, but her advanced metrics have not separated her from the other contenders.
Lauren Betts (+25000)
The talent is obvious. The minutes are not.
Betts has shown encouraging flashes as a rebounder and interior defender, but she needs a larger role before she can enter the top tier of this race.
Awa Fam (+4000)
The youngest player among the contenders continues to show intriguing upside, but Seattle’s record remains a major obstacle.
Final Thoughts
At this point, the race belongs to Olivia Miles.
She has the numbers, the team success, and the full support of the betting market.
The more interesting question may be who finishes second.
Astier, Fudd, Nogic, Johnson, and several others still have plenty of time to reshape the conversation. But unless something changes dramatically, Miles remains the clear player everyone else is chasing.
